AAC Championship : Unbeaten gets one more chance to prove it belongs in the Playoff conversation when it hosts for the AAC Championship game Saturday at 3:30 p.m. ET. The Knights are favored by three points, down 2.5 from the opening line. The over-under, or total number of points Vegas thinks will be scored, opened at 70, but has fallen all the way to 64.5 in the latest Memphis vs. UCF odds.
UCF (11-0) looks to conclude a perfect regular season but will attempt to do so without star quarterback . Memphis (8-4) gave the Knights their toughest test all season, so before you make any Memphis vs. UCF picks for the AAC Championship game, you need to see what the SportsLine Projection Model has to say.
The model simulates every FBS college football game 10,000 times, and those who have followed it have seen massive returns. Over the past three years, this proprietary computer model has generated a jaw-dropping $4,210 profit for $100 bettors on its top-rated point-spread picks.
The model made some huge calls on Rivalry Week, including nailing outright upset of as a 4.5-point underdog. And when it comes to all top-rated picks, the model has been red-hot, entering Championship Week on a blistering 43-23 run. Anybody who has followed it is way, way up.
Now it has simulated Memphis vs. UCF 10,000 times and the results are in. We can tell you that model has a lean toward the over, but it has a strong against the spread pick, saying one side hits in nearly 60 percent of simulations. You can only see that one at SportsLine.
The model knows nobody has been able to slow down UCF’s explosive offense. The Knights average 260-plus yards through the air and on the ground, good for No. 5 in the country at 531.5 total yards per game. UCF is scoring an average of 43.1 points.
Unfortunately, UCF’s star quarterback McKenzie Milton was lost for the season (knee) in last Saturday’s 38-10 win over . New quarterback is not the passer Milton is, but he’s rushed for 171 yards and a touchdown in limited action, adding a new dimension to UCF’s offense.
But just because UCF is motivated to close out another perfect regular season doesn’t mean it will cover in the AAC Championship 2018.
The Tigers led the Knights 30-17 at halftime on Oct. 13 before UCF rallied for a 31-30 victory. And while the Knights’ offense gets all the headlines, the Tigers actually score more points per game, at 43.8 per game. They are also averaging over 530 yards per game on offense.
Quarterback has thrown for 2,947 yards and 25 TDs, but Memphis is built around a dominant rushing attack that averages 276 yards per contest. Running back has gained 1,699 yards with 19 touchdowns, ranking No. 2 in the nation in both categories. He’ll lead the charge against a UCF defense that ranks a dismal 109th in the nation in rush defense.